Why The Spotify Stock Rally Could Be Short-Lived

Spotify shares (SPOT), streaming music giant, have been facing a lot of downside recently. The equity is dangerously close at eclipsing the Nov. 4 record low, $69.28. Several trendlines have been looming just above as possible layers of resistance. SPOT, which has been bouncing back from some of the negative price action (last seen up 3% to $78.83 at the last check), is looking to avoid any kind of Santa rally. However, one trendline could protect SPOT and prevent it from falling further. Rocky White, Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative analyst, pointed out that the 40-day moving mean is historically a bearish trendline in Spotify stock. Six times in the past six years, the equity has been within one standard deviation from this moving average. The equity fell 6.7% in a month following these signals. It dropped an average of 12.4% over that period. If the equity experienced a similar decline, it would fall to $69.06. Despite the negative price action that equity is experiencing, analysts remain positive, which could leave the streaming service vulnerable to bear calls. Twelve of the 21 coverage analysts say that the stock is a 'buy' or higher, while nine have 'hold' ratings and none are'sell. The consensus price target for the 12-month of $115.33 represents a healthy 45.9% increase over current levels. Similar situations could be found in the equity options pits where calls reign. The equity has a 50-day call/put ratio of 1.58, higher than 82% in comparison to readings over the past year at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchanges (CBOE) and NASDAQ OMX PHLX(PHLX). Options could be a good option for those who want to speculate on Spotify stock’s next move. The security's Schaeffer’s Volatility Index (54%) is higher than the 25% readings over the past 12 months. Options players are pricing in low volatility expectations right now, this means.