Iron ore is not on the cusp of a new supercycle, according to the head of one the world’s biggest mining companies, who expects demand for the steelmaking ingredient to flatten out after a couple of years of the current tightness.
Eduardo Bartolomeo, chief executive of Brazil’s Vale, said the record surge in iron ore prices over the past year was very different to the boom of the early 2000s, which was driven by China’s rapid industrialisation.
“In the last supercycle we had urbanisation in China. It was a structural change. A shock in demand,” he told the Financial Times. “We are not talking about a huge shock in demand now. I would say it is marginal. It is not a shock.”
But he added that, with big global economies revving up and iron producers running at or near capacity, prices could remain elevated until 2023.
“Although there is strong talk about cuts, production is still going up in China and now you have Europe coming back and the US announcing a huge stimulus package. There are also restrictions on supply,” he said. “This market is going to be tight for a while. At least two years.”
Iron ore has spearheaded a broad-based rally in commodities over the past year, rising more than 150 per cent to a record high above $230 a tonne last week, mainly on the back of strong demand from steel mills in China, before paring gains and hitting $209.35 on Friday.
As China’s steel production continues to expand analysts believe prices can remain around current levels but say the market will be highly volatile.
Iron ore’s turbocharged performance has been a boon for big producers including Vale, which require a price of only about $50 a tonne to break even.
It has fanned talk of a new commodities supercycle — a prolonged period where prices remain above their long-term trend, usually triggered by a structural boost to demand to which supply is slow to respond.
Following a deadly dam disaster two years ago that killed 270 people, mainly company employees and contractors, Vale was forced to curtail production.
Its output fell from a planned 400m tonnes a year to about 300m tonnes in 2019 and 2020, and the company lost its position as the world’s largest iron ore producer to Rio Tinto, which has managed to produce about 330m tonnes in each of the past two years.
Bartolomeo said Vale eventually needed to increase production to 400m tonnes because iron ore was a “high fixed-cost business”. However, he said the company would do so in a “very paced way”, mindful of safety.
Erik Hedborg, analyst at the CRU consultancy, said Vale’s journey to 400m tonnes would take time because it required the “restart of many mines, which will go through several complex licensing processes”.
Over the medium term — from 2025 to 2030 — Bartolomeo said Vale expected diminishing demand for iron ore from China because of increasing use of scrap in electric arc furnaces.
“Everybody talks about the circular economy. Scrap is going to come to China. It has to. We see it diminishing demand for iron ore from China.”
Bartolomeo said there would also be a shift to higher-quality iron ore as the steel industry sought to reduce emissions by moving to less polluting methods of steelmaking such as hydrogen-based production.
“All the roads lead to high-quality iron ore and Vale is very well positioned for that,” he added.