Stocks Soar, Shrug Off China Chunder; Seth Klarman Warns "I'd Be Worried"

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

The Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey this morning was weak, which came after the ugly China GDP data (alongside really ugly property investments, youth unemployment and retail sales). This led to bond yields and commodity prices dropping overnight. However, on a relatively quiet day (volume wise), things ended quite differently in the day session.

The stock market just can't seem to stop. Small Caps, Nasdaq and the cash opened all rose today. Dow and S&P both ended the day comfortably in green. A little late-day profit taking wiped the lipstick off this pig...

The "most shorted names" suffered a massive loss on Friday.

Source: Bloomberg

Jefferies added cell phone tower owners to its "stock pans list" in advance of the earnings season, and BMO reiterated caution on tower stock near-term.

Source: Bloomberg

NVDA has continued to move forward despite the threat of the Biden administration, which wants to stop chip sales to China. It is now decoupled (for now), from its 2021 counterpart...

Source: Bloomberg

The HY-IG spread has fallen to its lowest level in 15 months, indicating that the credit markets believe a soft landing is imminent.

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries traded on a roller coaster today, with yields falling overnight before resuming their rise during the US session. The 30Y yield ended marginally higher while the belly performed better...

Source: Bloomberg

After a massive pump and dump in response to the Empire Fed's data, the dollar fell very slightly.

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin fell below $30,000 in late afternoon, below the spike lows of Friday...

Source: Bloomberg

The oil price fell overnight after the release of the poor GDP figures for China. However, it exploded in the European session (and then quickly dropped back down again) when Reuters published a headline stating that Saudi Arabia would extend production cuts until the end 2024.

Gold was marginally lower for the day, but rebounded nicely after a dive around Empire Fed data and London Fixing )...

Seth Klarman, CEO of Baupost Group and billionaire investor, said in the latest episode 'Capital Allocators With Ted Seides' that he is "not convinced" that we have even begun to unravel that bubble.

He said, "You had a big bubble. It was really a debt bubble that turned into an all-encompassing bubble." "Super low interest rates, sometimes zero rates, allowed capital to be easily accessible and extremely cheap."

This led to startup manias, SPACs, meme stocks and cryptocurrency. All kinds of speculative activities.

He said, "You had many hiccups from '98 to '01 and the Great Financial Crisis for about a year was really bad."

"I don't know why you didn't have more problems."

Klarman concluded, "We haven’t seen many bodies floating up." "I'm not sure what that means but I would be concerned."