Banks

BoE stress tests: all you need to know

The Bank of England has released the results of its latest round of its annual banking stress tests and its semi-annual financial stability report this morning. Used to measure the resilience of a bank’s balance sheet in adverse scenarios, the stress tests measured the impact of a severe slowdown in Chinese growth, a global recession […]

Continue Reading

Economy

Draghi: Eurozone will decline without vital productivity growth

It’s productivity, stupid. European Central Bank president Mario Draghi has become the latest major policymaker to warn of the long-term economic damage posed by chronically low productivity growth, as he urged eurozone governments to take action to lift growth and stoke innovation. Speaking in Madrid on Wednesday, Mr Draghi noted that productivity rises in the […]

Continue Reading

Currencies

Asia markets tentative ahead of Opec meeting

Wednesday 2.30am GMT Overview Markets across Asia were treading cautiously on Wednesday, following mild overnight gains for Wall Street, a weakening of the US dollar and as investors turned their attention to a meeting between Opec members later today. What to watch Oil prices are in focus ahead of Wednesday’s Opec meeting in Vienna. The […]

Continue Reading

Banks, Financial

RBS emerges as biggest failure in tough UK bank stress tests

Royal Bank of Scotland has emerged as the biggest failure in the UK’s annual stress tests, forcing the state-controlled lender to present regulators with a new plan to bolster its capital position by at least £2bn. Barclays and Standard Chartered also failed to meet some of their minimum hurdles in the toughest stress scenario ever […]

Continue Reading

Banks

Barclays: life in the old dog yet

Barclays, a former basket case of British banking, is beginning to look inspiringly mediocre. The bank has failed Bank of England stress tests less resoundingly than Royal Bank of Scotland. Investors believe its assets are worth only 10 per cent less than their book value, judging from the share price. Although Barclays’s legal team have […]

Continue Reading

Categorized | Capital Markets, Economy

Long-dated bonds star amid market upturn


Posted on March 31, 2016

Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Haruhiko Kuroda explains his negative interest rate plan using a board during his regular press conference in Tokyo©Getty

Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda explains his interest rate policy

Stock markets have staged an impressive comeback this quarter, clawing back their severe losses from January and February but the real stars of financial markets this year have been long-dated government debt.

While the March rebound has helped the FTSE All World index recover almost all of its early-year losses, longer maturity government bonds have been on a tear since the start of the year, propelled by subdued inflation, negative interest rates and low yields on shorter-dated debt.

    Eurozone government bonds with a maturity of 10 years or above have returned 8 per cent in the first three months of the year, according to Bloomberg data, a performance only beaten in two quarters since 1998.

    German “long bonds” have returned over 10 per cent and longer maturity UK gilts have gained over 7 per cent.

    Longer dated US Treasuries have handed investors a 7.3 per cent gain but both eurozone and US “govvies” have been put to shame by the performance of long maturity Japanese government bonds, which have returned 10.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2016. That is the best quarterly performance since at least 1991.

    The blow-out performance is a reflection of the paucity of returns available in shorter dated debt.

    Quantitative easing and negative rates in the eurozone and Japan have pushed the yield of trillions of dollars worth of bonds into negative territory, forcing many investors into longer-duration debt that yields more.

    “You can either go down in credit quality, and many people don’t want to do that, or just go nuts on duration,” said Jack Flaherty, a bond fund manager at GAM.

    As a result, long-term borrowing costs for a host of major countries have fallen precipitously. The US, Germany and Japan can now borrow for 30 years at just 2.64 per cent, 0.84 per cent and 0.53 per cent, respectively.

    “There’s been a significant change in yields in the first quarter, not just domestically but also in Europe and Japan,” said Alex Roever, head of US rate strategy at JPMorgan. “The increase and anticipation of quantitative easing has pushed yields even lower . . . There’s now just much less positive yielding debt out there.”

    However, the performance of longer dated government bonds is not just caused by technical factors such as the swelling universe of negative-yielding debt but also reflects still-muted expectations for global economic growth and inflation.

    Strategists still mostly expect bond yields to climb in the coming year — albeit gently.

    The 10-year US Treasury yield is on average forecast to rise to 2.3 per cent by the end of 2016, and the German, UK and Japanese equivalents to 0.6 per cent, 2 per cent and 0.01 per, respectively, according to Bloomberg data.

    Even if many fund managers doubt that yields will climb meaningfully — or at all — in the coming year, the performance of the first quarter will be difficult to replicate, given the limited scope for safer government bond yields to fall much further.